Different Studies Conclude It’s a Housing Recovery, But…

Different Studies Conclude It’s a Housing Recovery, But…

Let’s take a look at the data and conclusions of a couple of newly-released reports about the housing market and the current status many refer to as a “recovery.” They draw some of the same conclusions, but they’re not necessarily together on the current strength of this recovery.
The State of the Nation’s Housing from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University
The overall conclusion of this report stated in one sentence is that “Homebuilding strengthened in 2013, but remains below historical averages. There’s no startling revelation there, but there is some informative data in the report:
• Housing starts in 2013 were up more than 18 percent from 2012, but were down to 925,000 units from the historical average of 1.46 million.
• Multi-family construction was up by 25% to 307,000 units and residential single family was up by 15% to 618,000 units.
• The share of new single family units built as rentals grew to more than one-third of all units, the highest level since 1974.
• New home sales increase 17% in 2013.
Summarizing the report findings in reference to challenges to sustained recovery; tighter credit, higher interest rates, mounting student debt and high unemployment were all mentioned. The report ends with a positive outlook however. Considering the size of the adult population and other demographic trends, analysts expect the growth in households will in the next ten years be between 11.6 million and 13.2 million. That’s in line with growth experienced from the 1980s through the 2000s.


Replay of latest podcast with Matt

Hi Dean, I signed up for the live cast with Matt on Thursday the 24th. Any possibility to view it as a relay? I found myself on a late flight home when the event was broadcast. Bummer! Please let me know if this is possible.

Tanks, your loyal student.



It doesn't anwer the question on recovery

I think everyone can see that there is a housing recovery all around. However I wonder who is the recovery for and who is truly benefiting. Not trying to sound negative here, just wondering are people who were truly hurt in the last housing crisis able to go back and purchase new homes? It's great that prices and development have gone up, but who can afford these new properties and are banks lending to support this development? In the region I live in new homes are going up (Tacoma, WA) but jobs haven't necessarily moved in. I feel as if there is a huge gap that we still can't see. Are homes actually being sold?

The investors are making a

The investors are making a killing in my region of the country. With all of the foreclosures that have and are still going to hit the market, people's credit scores have taken a HUGE hit. I think it is going to be a long time before the bulk of homeowners will be able to purchase again unless the Fannie Mae guidelines are loosened. Investors who are either liquid or who's credit wasn't hurt over the past 10 years are in the driver's seat. Since people aren't able to buy, they must rent. Houses and condominiums below $200,000 rarely last very long where I am because they are easily rented for top dollar. Perhaps sandwich leases and lease options are a good strategy to look into. I know a lot of people who haven't paid their mortgage in years and have been living for free so they were able to build a nice nest egg. I advised some friends against that because when things settle down, the banks most likely will start coming after these people for the deficiencies on the mortgages.


Live well, laugh often and love much.

Walter Fabiszewski
Southern, FL

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